Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.4 | 11.4% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.0 | 15% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 3.4 | 26.4% | 37 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.6 | 15.7% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 6.4% | 9 | 0.09% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.9 | 8.6% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.1 | 7.9% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 8.6% | 12 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 10 | 11.3 | 100% | 140 | 0.13% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04 | 29856 | 224893 | 702 | 179 | 168 |
| Mar 05 | 29864 | 225052 | 703 | 179 | 156 |
| Mar 06 | 29867 | 225135 | 703 | 180 | 135 |
| Mar 07 | 29887 | 225309 | 703 | 180 | 137 |
| Mar 08 | 29895 | 225655 | 703 | 180 | 137 |
| Mar 09 | 29908 | 225952 | 703 | 180 | 143 |
| Mar 10 | 29918 | 226108 | 703 | 180 | 140 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04 | 18522 | 150001 | 685 | 176 | 83 |
| Mar 05 | 18528 | 150151 | 688 | 176 | 77 |
| Mar 06 | 18530 | 150224 | 688 | 176 | 65 |
| Mar 07 | 18536 | 150349 | 688 | 176 | 64 |
| Mar 08 | 18544 | 150551 | 688 | 176 | 70 |
| Mar 09 | 18549 | 150755 | 688 | 176 | 70 |
| Mar 10 | 18551 | 150839 | 688 | 176 | 62 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 12.9% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 9.7% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 17.7% | 11 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.7 | 11.3% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.0 | 17.7% | 11 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.1 | 17.7% | 11 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 8.1% | 5 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 2 | 6.0 | 100% | 62 | 0.1% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04 | 13359 | 87985 | 533 | 139 | 52 |
| Mar 05 | 13362 | 88019 | 533 | 140 | 48 |
| Mar 06 | 13363 | 88126 | 533 | 140 | 44 |
| Mar 07 | 13371 | 88202 | 536 | 140 | 43 |
| Mar 08 | 13376 | 88307 | 536 | 140 | 46 |
| Mar 09 | 13384 | 88384 | 536 | 140 | 49 |
| Mar 10 | 13392 | 88422 | 536 | 140 | 50 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 4% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 6% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.3 | 6% | 3 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.3 | 10% | 5 | 0.09% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.0 | 16% | 8 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.0 | 16% | 8 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 6% | 3 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 6 | 2.1 | 36% | 18 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 8 | 5.3 | 100% | 50 | 0.11% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04 | 34241 | 302759 | 1010 | 170 | 249 |
| Mar 05 | 34247 | 302918 | 1010 | 170 | 218 |
| Mar 06 | 34268 | 303058 | 1010 | 170 | 214 |
| Mar 07 | 34302 | 303334 | 1011 | 170 | 223 |
| Mar 08 | 34334 | 303645 | 1012 | 170 | 245 |
| Mar 09 | 34369 | 303932 | 1012 | 170 | 260 |
| Mar 10 | 34399 | 304081 | 1013 | 170 | 255 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.6 | 12.9% | 33 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.3 | 17.3% | 44 | 0.27% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 4.9 | 18% | 46 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.0 | 16.5% | 42 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.4 | 9% | 23 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.4 | 8.6% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.6 | 8.2% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.7 | 9.4% | 24 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 30 | 25.9 | 100% | 255 | 0.22% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04 | 122425 | 2366092 | 2558 | 490 | 796 |
| Mar 05 | 122481 | 2367591 | 2561 | 490 | 751 |
| Mar 06 | 122520 | 2368502 | 2563 | 490 | 693 |
| Mar 07 | 122569 | 2369820 | 2564 | 490 | 627 |
| Mar 08 | 122664 | 2372720 | 2566 | 490 | 659 |
| Mar 09 | 122743 | 2375248 | 2568 | 490 | 699 |
| Mar 10 | 122823 | 2376963 | 2568 | 490 | 715 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 10.9 | 15.8% | 113 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 9.3 | 12.7% | 91 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 10.4 | 16.8% | 120 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 14.0 | 19.9% | 142 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 10.0 | 13.4% | 96 | 0.15% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.7 | 7.6% | 54 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.6 | 6.9% | 49 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 4 | 5.9 | 7% | 50 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 80 | 69.7 | 100% | 715 | 0.13% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 04 | 1575062 | 13746109 | 62691 | 13707 | 6562 |
| Mar 05 | 1575379 | 13756066 | 62706 | 13709 | 5939 |
| Mar 06 | 1575613 | 13763575 | 62717 | 13711 | 5360 |
| Mar 07 | 1576049 | 13775123 | 62739 | 13713 | 5009 |
| Mar 08 | 1576625 | 13793751 | 62760 | 13713 | 5161 |
| Mar 09 | 1577154 | 13810389 | 62773 | 13713 | 5341 |
| Mar 10 | 1577659 | 13819801 | 62782 | 13713 | 5148 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 52 | 51.7 | 11.9% | 612 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 66 | 52.0 | 11.6% | 599 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 65 | 63.0 | 13.7% | 703 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 84 | 69.9 | 16% | 822 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 73 | 57.4 | 12.7% | 654 | 0.09% |
| 50-59 | 49 | 49.4 | 11.4% | 588 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 48 | 50.3 | 10.9% | 560 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 63 | 55.7 | 11.6% | 598 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 505 | 451.0 | 100% | 5148 | 0.09% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-04-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 13978"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges